机场蓄车池出租车司机的选择决策研究——以首都机场为例
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引用本文:王钰琪1,2,王 烁1,2,曹文杰1,2,王颖喆1,2.机场蓄车池出租车司机的选择决策研究——以首都机场为例[J].经济数学,2020,(4):107-113
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王钰琪1,2,王 烁1,2,曹文杰1,2,王颖喆1,2 (1.北京师范大学数学科学学院, 北京 1008752.北京师范大学 数学与复杂系统教育部重点实验室,北京 100875) 
中文摘要:随着中国全面小康的逐步实现,乘客下飞机后乘坐出租车回市区已经成为大多数人的选择.着眼出租车送客至机场后的情景,以出租车司机的盈利最大化为目标,讨论出租车司机的两种决策选择——决策A是留在机场蓄车池等待回城区的乘客,决策B是空载回城找生意.控制时间相同的条件下,用机场接客的订单金额来估计决策A的收益,用司机单位时间内平均收益乘以经营时长来衡量决策B的收益.以北京市首都国际机场为例,从数学模型的角度为出租车司机提供决策条件,有效实现司机利润最大化.
中文关键词:机场出租车  选择决策模型  泊松分布
 
The Choice Decision Problem of Taxi Drivers in the Car Storage Pool of the Airport
Abstract:With the increase of citizens' income, passengers tend to take a taxi back to home after the flight. This article concentrates on the situation that a taxi driver is already in the airport, and there are two choices for him to optimize his income: choice A is to stay in the airport's parking lot and wait to pick up passengers back to city, choice B is to directly return and pick up passengers in the city. Choice A's profit comes from cab fare from airport to city, while choice B's profit is equal to the average profit multiplies time which is the same as time in the first choice. Take Beijing Capital International Airport for an example, we use web crawler to get flight information and collect data of taxis, and then predict the possible waiting time in choice A and passenger flow using Poisson distribution. We then use MATLAB to calculate our model using the data above and get the decision threshold, which is expressed as the number of waiting taxis just before the present one. Our article uses decision model to optimize the taxi driver's profit and provide an observable condition for him to decide.
keywords:taxi in airport  decision-making model  Poisson distribution
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