基于ARMA模型的共享单车的投放预测与管理
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引用本文:何郁波,曾 桢,兰燕鸿,黄遵杰.基于ARMA模型的共享单车的投放预测与管理[J].经济数学,2020,(3):234-239
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作者单位
何郁波,曾 桢,兰燕鸿,黄遵杰 (怀化学院 数学与计算科学学院湖南 怀化 418008) 
中文摘要:共享单车作为城市公共交通的有效补充,对其使用情况进行预测能为共享单车管理部门的投放和统一管理提供依据.采用时间序列分析的方法,对城市某一公共场所共享单车的使用情况进行了观察记录,对所获得的序列X-user进行时间序列分析的方法建立了序列ARMA模型.根据所建立的ARMA模型对共享单车的使用情况进行了短期的预测,预测的结果与实际观察的结果具有较高的拟合度,验证了模型具有较好的预测效果.
中文关键词:时间序列  ARMA模型  预测
 
Research and Management of Shared Transportation Based on ARMA Model
Abstract:As an effective supplement to urban public transport, it is very important to predict the use of shared transport. The results of the prediction can provide the corresponding basis for the deployment and unified management of shared transport management departments. In this paper, time series analysis method is used to study the time series obtained by observing and recording the use of shared bicycles in a public place, and the time series ARMA model is established by time series analysis of the time series X-user. According to the proposed ARMA model, we get a short-term prediction of the use of shared bicycles. The predicted results are in good agreement with the observed ones, which verifies that the model has a good prediction effect.
keywords:time series  ARMA model  prediction
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