| 一种新的死亡率模型及基于中国人口数据的比较分析 |
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| 引用本文：马海飞，肖鸿民,赵弘宇.一种新的死亡率模型及基于中国人口数据的比较分析[J].经济数学,2020,(3):99-106 |
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| 中文摘要:基于中国人口死亡率数据, 对APC模型进行扩展, 并将扩展的死亡率模型(EAPC模型)与APC模型和LC模型进行对比. 通过比较模型的拟合效果和预测效果, 并对其稳定性进行检验, 发现由APC模型扩展而来的EAPC模型更适合于拟合和预测中国的人口死亡率, 这为我国死亡率模型的使用提供了更多可行的方案. |
| 中文关键词:APC模型 EAPC模型 LC模型 比较分析 稳定性检验 |
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| A New Mortality Model and Comparative Analysis Based on China's Population Data |
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| Abstract:Based on China's population mortality data, this paper extends the APC model and compares the extended mortality model (EAPC model) with APC model and LC model. By comparing the fitting effect and prediction effect of the model, and testing its stability, it is found that EAPC model extended from APC model is more suitable for fitting and predicting China's population mortality, which provides more feasible schemes for the use of mortality model in China. |
| keywords:APC model EAPC model LC model comparative analysis stability test |
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