对恐怖袭击事件的多元统计分析
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引用本文:谢振东,文 帆,周子雅,欧 辉.对恐怖袭击事件的多元统计分析[J].经济数学,2019,(3):89-94
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谢振东,文 帆,周子雅,欧 辉 (湖南师范大学 数学与统计学院湖南 长沙 410081) 
中文摘要:恐怖袭击威胁人类社会安全.选取全球恐怖主义数据库(Global Terrorism Database,GTD)中2015-2017年世界上发生的恐怖袭击事件的记录,根据相关性对2015-2016年未知作案组织或个人对应的事件数据进行整合简化,使用二阶聚类得到最大分类数,根据危害性从大到小选出前5个犯罪嫌疑人,利用判别分析对2017年未知作案组织或个人对应的事件进行概率预测,得出嫌疑人的嫌疑程度.选取影响恐怖袭击的重要指标,应用因子分析研究2015-2017年恐怖袭击事件发生规律,得到恐怖事件地域发展趋势.
中文关键词:社会统计学  趋势预测  多元分析  恐怖袭击
 
MultipleStatistical Analysesfor Terrorist Attacks
Abstract:Terrorist attacks threaten the security of human society and cause social unrest to a certain extent. Selection of Global Terrorism Database (Global Terrorism Database, GTD) in 2015~2017 terrorist attacks in the world record of events, from 2015 to 2016 unknown crime organization or individual corresponding event data integration based on association simplified second order clustering are used to get the maximum number of classification, and according to the harm from big to small chosen five suspects, using discriminate analysis for 2017 unknown crime organization or individual corresponding event probability prediction, it is concluded that the suspect's degree of suspicion; After that, important indicators affecting terrorist attacks were selected to apply factor analysis to study the occurrence law of terrorist attacks in 2015~2017, and the regional development trend of terrorist incidents was obtained.
keywords:Social statistics  Trend prediction  Multivariate analysis  Terrorist attacks
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