基于VAR模型的山东省产业发展系统评价
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引用本文:范梦甜,王慧.基于VAR模型的山东省产业发展系统评价[J].经济数学,2018,(3):52-61
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范梦甜,王慧 (曲阜师范大学 地理与旅游学院山东 日照276826) 
中文摘要:以山东省为例,以创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的发展理念为指导,构建产业发展多指标评价体系,测算改革开放以来山东省产业发展演变情况,运用基于VAR模型的脉冲响应及方差分解分析产业发展的内在机制,结果表明:①山东省产业发展水平不断提高,经历了初期震荡缓慢增长、中期高速增长和后期持续增长.②产业发展系统结构逐渐优化,呈现出产业规模、结构、效益、创新、协调及绿色为一体的产业综合发展态势,目前主要面临提升效益和发展外向型产业的双重压力.③从冲击响应结果来看,产业规模及外向型产业对产业综合发展表现为正向效应;产业和谐程度对产业综合发展表现为负向效应;产业效益及产业绿色化对产业综合发展起初表现为正向效应,之后作用不稳定;产业结构和产业科技创新能力对产业综合发展的正向效应存在一定滞后期.④预测方差结果表明,子系统对产业综合发展的影响从高到低分别为:产业发展和谐程度,产业发展外向度,产业规模,产业科技创新能力,产业结构,产业绿色发展,产业效益.
中文关键词:区域经济学  产业发展  VAR模型  山东省
 
Evaluation of industrial development system in Shandong Province based on VAR model
Abstract:The study took innovation, coordination, green, open, sharing concept as an instruction and measured the evolution of industrial development by building multi-index evaluation system and analysed the internal mechanism of industrial development by using the impulse response and variance decomposition based on VAR model in Shandong Province since the reform and opening up and it found: (1) the industrial development level is enhancing gradually and it experienced the shock and slow growth in early period, high speed growth in middle period and sustained growth in end period; (2)the structure of industrial development system is optimizing gradually which presents the situation of industrial scale, structure, efficiency, innovation, harmonious and green as a whole and it currently mainly faces the double pressure of gaining efficiency and developing export-oriented industry;(3) the impulse response results show that the industrial scale and the export-oriented industry have positive effect on industrial comprehensive development, the industrial harmonious degree has negative effect on industrial comprehensive development, the industrial efficiency and the industrial green level have positive effect in early period and unstable effect in end period on industrial comprehensive development and the industrial structure and technological innovation ability have lagging positive effect on industrial comprehensive development; (4)variance results show that the influence of subsystem to industrial comprehensive development from high to low is: the harmonious degree of industrial development, the extroverted degree of industrial development, industrial scale, industrial technology innovation ability, industrial structure, industrial green development and industrial efficiency.
keywords:regional economics  industrial development  VAR model  Shandong Province
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