人口老龄化与区域产业结构——基于分位数回归的实证研究
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引用本文:张兴皖,周石鹏.人口老龄化与区域产业结构——基于分位数回归的实证研究[J].经济数学,2019,(1):39-45
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张兴皖,周石鹏 (上海理工大学 管理学院,上海 200093) 
中文摘要:基于2005-2016年的省级面板数据,运用分位数回归实证分析了人口老龄化背景下,产业结构优化升级的影响因素.结果表明:全部样本的老年抚养比对产业结构优化升级的阻碍作用十分明显,东部对产业结构的影响不显著,中部的阻碍作用与全国趋势相反,西部的阻碍作用与全国趋势相同,具有明显的区域差异性;全部样本和东中西部的人均GDP都是正向推动产业结构合理化和高度化;全部样本和西部的政府行为对产业结构调整的抑制作用在增强,而东中部对产业结构调整的促进作用在增强;全部样本和东部的创新效率对产业结构调整有不断增强地推动作用,中部对产业结构调整的促进作用在减弱,而西部对产业结构调整的阻碍作用在增强.
中文关键词:人口老龄化  产业结构优化升级  分位数回归
 
Population Aging and Regional Industrial Structure——Empirical Research Based on Quantile Regression
Abstract:Based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2016, this paper used ing quantile regression to empirically analyze the influencing factors of optimization and upgrading of industrial structure under the background of population aging. The results show that the old-age dependency ratio of all samples has obvious hindrance to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. The influence of industrial structure on the eastern part is not significant. The hindrance effect of the central part is opposite to the national trend. The hindrance effect of the western part is the same as the national trend. This has obvious regional differences; Per capita GDP in all samples, eastern, central and western regions is positively promoting the rationalization and heightening of industrial structure; All samples and western government behaviors have strengthened the suppression of industrial restructuring, while the central and eastern in promoting industrial restructuring have been strengthened; The innovation efficiency of all samples and the eastern region have been steadily promoting the adjustment of industrial structure. The promotion of industrial restructuring in the central region is weakening, while the impediment to the adjustment of industrial structure in the west is increasing.
keywords:aging population  optimization and upgrading of industrial structure  quantile regression
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