我国粮食最低收购价政策的效应及最低价预测

黄剑桥; 王利平; 甘丽蓉; 袁留闯

我国粮食最低收购价政策的效应及最低价预测

引用本文：黄剑桥，王利平，甘丽蓉，袁留闯.我国粮食最低收购价政策的效应及最低价预测[J].经济数学,2016,(4):105-110

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作者	单位
黄剑桥，王利平，甘丽蓉，袁留闯	（1.湖南大学金融与统计学院，湖南长沙410079；2.数学与计量学院,湖南长沙410082）

中文摘要:本文首先构建粮食最低收购价政策效应的评价指标体系模型，然后结合实施品种不同，利用固定效应回归分析方法分别对小麦和早稻这两个粮食品种的具体评价指标模型进行实证分析并进行相应比较，最后构建粮食最低收购价的VAR预测模型，并对小麦和早稻2017年的最低收购价进行预测.

中文关键词:粮食最低收购价政策评价指标体系模型固定效应回归分析向量自回归(VAR)模型

Effect of China’s Grain Minimum Purchase Price Policy and the Lowest Price Forecast

Abstract:This article constructed the evaluation index system model of the grain minimum purchase price policy. Then, combined with the implementation of different varieties, the fixed effect regression analysis method was employed to empirically analyze wheat and rice of the two varieties of grain, and these two models were compared. The VAR prediction model of the minimum grain purchase price was constructed, and the price of wheat and rice in 2017 was forecasted.

keywords:grain minimum purchase price policy evaluation index system model fixed effect regression analysis vector auto-regressive (VAR) model

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