中国省域FDI投资的时空区位演化过程研究
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引用本文:曾惠芳1,熊培银2.中国省域FDI投资的时空区位演化过程研究[J].经济数学,2016,(3):83-87
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曾惠芳1,熊培银2 (1.湖南科技大学 商学院湖南 湘潭 4112012.湖南科技大学 信息与电气工程学院湖南 湘潭 411201) 
中文摘要:采用1993-2014年中国31个省市的外商直接投资数据,利用了空间马尔可夫链方法和地理信息技术,研究了中国各省市外商直接投资的时空演化特征.按照FDI投资比重大小把各省市FDI演化特征划分为低、中低、中高和高4种类型,构建马尔可夫状态转移概率矩阵,利用空间Markov方法模拟了中国各省市FDI投资的时空演化过程.结果发现中国各省市FDI分布极不均衡,在1993-2002年期间主要分布在中国东部沿海地区,到2014年具有逐步向中西部转移的趋势.比较空间马尔可夫链的初始分布和极限分布发现,当处于低和中低状态时,极限概率小于初始概率,当处于中高和高状态时,极限概率大于初始概率;由此可以说明中国各省市FDI投资水平的提高正在稳步推进,而且FDI空间区位演化过程具有发散性.
中文关键词:外商直接投资  区位演化  空间马尔可夫链
 
Research on Temporal-Spatial Location Evolution of Foreign Direct Investment in China
Abstract:Based on the data set of inward foreign direct investment across the provincial regions of China over 1993-2014, this paper attempts to apply Markov chain and geographic information system technology to investigate the spatial and temporal dynamic characteristics of FDI agglomeration in China. Firstly, the FDI shares for different regions in China are classified into four different classes(low, middle-low, middle-high and high),which shows a very uneven FDI distribution pattern based on GIS technology. On the other hand, the estimation of Markov transition probability matrix offers more detailed insights into the mechanics of FDI evolution process in China during the research period. In addition, the evolutionary trends of FDI agglomeration are forecasted by computing the limited power of Markov transition probability matrix. Empirical results indicate that the probability of moving up the FDI ladder is somewhat higher than that of moving down. We can conclude that there is divergence of FDI in China.
keywords:Foreign direct investment  Location evolution  Spatial Markov chain
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