基于反馈回归法的用电量预测模型研究

任芳玲; 吴娜; 乔克林

基于反馈回归法的用电量预测模型研究

引用本文：任芳玲,吴娜,乔克林.基于反馈回归法的用电量预测模型研究[J].经济数学,2016,(1):100-105

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作者	单位
任芳玲,吴娜,乔克林	(1．延安大学计算机学院，陕西延安716000 2．西北大学数学学院，陕西西安710127)

中文摘要:多元线性回归法是用电量预测中常用的一种方法,带反馈的多元线性回归法是一种改进的回归方法,具有更高的精度.本文在此基础上进行了多次反馈,即利用带多次反馈的多元线性回归法,结合SPSS软件进行统计分析,并以陕西省用电量为例探究分析多次反馈的多元线性回归法在用电量预测中的应用,从而得到更精准的用电量预测模型.最后以四川省的用电量数据对模型进行了验证，体现出了该模型的优越之处.

中文关键词:线性回归多次反馈统计分析用电量预测

Study of Electricity Consumption Forecast Model Based on Feedback Regression

Abstract:Multiple linear regression method is a common method in electricity consumption forecasting, and multiple linear regression method with feedback is a kind of improved regression method, which has higher accuracy. In this paper, on the basis of predecessors' results, multiple feedbacks were made. The multiple linear regression method with multi-feedbacks, combined with SPSS software, was used to make statistical analysis, and taking the electricity consumption of Shaanxi province as an example, the multiple linear regression method with multi-feedbacks was applied in the electricity consumption forecasting in order to obtain the more accurate prediction model. Finally, this model was verified by using electricity consumption of Sichuan province, which reflected the superiority of this model.

keywords:linear regression multi-feedbacks statistical analysis electricity consumption forecast

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