罕见灾难事件的福利减损效应研究
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引用本文:丁志帆.罕见灾难事件的福利减损效应研究[J].经济数学,2016,(1):1-6
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作者单位
丁志帆 (河南大学 经济学院,河南 开封475004) 
中文摘要:通过修正随机消费函数,构建了包含罕见灾难状态的理论模型,并根据中国经验消费数据测算了罕见灾难事件对国民福利的减损效应.研究发现:罕见灾难事件对国民经济福利的减损效应相当大,在合理的参数范围内,为通常意义上的经济波动福利减损效应的数十倍.罕见灾难事情的持续时间越长,福利减损效应越显著.相应的防灾减灾措施,可以有效降低灾难风险,进而提升灾难发生期的国民经济福利.因此,科学制定合理的宏观经济政策是必要的,其作用主要体现于缩短国民经济处于罕见灾难状态的时长、降低可避免的罕见灾难发生的概率以及减轻罕见灾难发生后经济衰退的幅度.
中文关键词:经济波动  罕见灾难  福利损失
 
The Welfare Loss Effect of Rare Disaster Event
Abstract:By changing random consumption function, this paper constructed a theory model containing the rare disaster state. Based on this theory model and China consumption data, the welfare loss effect of rare disaster event was estimated . The study shows that: the welfare loss of rare disaster event is quite large. Within reasonable parameters range, it can be dozen times of common economic fluctuation. The longer the rare disaster state duration, the more significant the welfare loss. Secondly, appropriate disaster prevention and mitigation measures can reduce disaster risk effectively, and get considerable welfare benefits when disaster occurs. Therefore, scientific and rational macroeconomic policies are still necessary, their role mainly reflects on shortening the length of macroeconomic in rare disaster state, reducing the rare disasters probability and alleviating the recession extent after the rare disaster happens.
keywords:economic fluctuations  rare disaster  welfare loss
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