到2020年我国能全面建成小康社会吗

周四军; $2

到2020年我国能全面建成小康社会吗

引用本文：周四军，付卫红.到2020年我国能全面建成小康社会吗[J].经济数学,2015,(1):58-64

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作者	单位
周四军，付卫红	（湖南大学金融与统计学院，湖南长沙 410079）

中文摘要:以国家统计局统计科学研究所制定的全面建设小康指标体系为基础，采用变异系数法确定权重，构建我国全面建成小康社会指标体系，测算了我国2007-2012年全面建成小康社会的实现程度，测算结果表明2012年我国全面建成小康社会实现程度达84.9%.与此同时，利用一次线性预测模型、对数曲线预测模型和灰色预测模型构建变权重组合预测模型对2013-2020年我国全面建成小康社会实现程度进行预测，预测结果表明我国将在2019年实现全面建成小康社会的目标.

中文关键词:全面建成小康社会实现程度变权重组合预测模型

Could Our Country Build Comprehensive Well-off Society in 2020

Abstract:Based on the index system of comprehensive construction well-off in China made by statistical science institute of national bureau of statistics, and by using variation coefficient to determine the weight, this paper made a comprehensive analysis of implementation process on building comprehensive well-off society. The results show that the realization degree in 2012 was 84.9%. In order to study the future implementation process, this paper used three kinds of single forecasting model: trend extrapolation prediction model of a linear prediction method and logarithmic curve prediction model, the grey prediction model GM (1, 1) to build a new model, i.e., variable weight combination forecast model. The predictions suggest that our country can fully realize a comprehensive well-off society in 2019.

keywords:comprehensive well-off society realization degree variable weight combination forecasting model

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