碳关税影响我国经济发展的动态一般均衡研究

毕慧敏1; 2; 肖皓2; 谢锐2

碳关税影响我国经济发展的动态一般均衡研究

引用本文：毕慧敏1,2 ,肖皓2,谢锐2.碳关税影响我国经济发展的动态一般均衡研究[J].经济数学,2013,(2):104-110

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作者	单位
毕慧敏1,2 ,肖皓2,谢锐2	（1.湖南涉外经济学院商学院，湖南长沙410205 2.湖南大学经济与贸易学院，湖南长沙410079）

中文摘要:碳关税是面向未来经济发展模式的新型贸易政策，兼具环境规制和贸易政策的双重功能.论文采用2002-2030年的中国动态CGE模型，构造“虚拟”碳关税方程，设计了基于总能耗的分行业碳排放密度的模拟方案，讨论是否存在“波特假说”情形下对中国工业制成品征收30美元/吨的碳关税的动态影响.研究结果表明：碳关税对不同类型出口品具有不同程度的动态影响，但总出口下降幅度要弱于进口、投资以及消费下降幅度.“波特假说”在一定程度上改善了不利的经济影响，但长期而言单位GDP碳排放的减少并不显著.

中文关键词:碳关税 CGE模型波特假说动态效应

Study on the Dynamic General Equilibrium Effects of Carbon Tariff on China's Economic Development

Abstract:As a new trade policy designed for the future model of economic development, Carbon tariff exerts a dual function in both environmental regulation and trade policy. In accordance with China’s dynamic CGE model in 2002-2030, this paper constructs “virtual” carbon tariff equations, designs a simulation scenario of sub-industry carbon emission density based on the total energy consumption, and then discusses whether the dynamic impact exits if the carbon tariff of 30 dollars per ton is imposed on China’s manufactured goods under the circumstance of Potter hypothesis. The result shows that dynamic effects of carbon tariff on different types of export goods are not the same, but exports decline at a slower pace than that of the imports, investment and consumption. The Potter hypothesis helps cushion the negative effects to some extent but will fail to influence the GDP per capita carbon emissions in the long run.

keywords:carbon tariff CGE model porter hypothesis dynamic effect

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