政府支出能规避对外贸易风险吗？——来自“灵猫六国”的经验证据

张 欣1; 崔日明2

政府支出能规避对外贸易风险吗？——来自“灵猫六国”的经验证据

引用本文：张欣1，崔日明2.政府支出能规避对外贸易风险吗？——来自“灵猫六国”的经验证据[J].经济数学,2012,(3):51-55

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作者	单位
张欣1，崔日明2	(1.大连民族学院国际商学院，辽宁大连 116600； 2.辽宁大学经济学院，辽宁沈阳 110036)

中文摘要:以“灵猫六国”等新兴经济体为样本，采用边界检验和自回归分布滞后模型等方法，从时间序列视角研究了一国政府支出与对外开放程度之间的长期影响关系，并验证了Rodrik (1998) 提出的政府支出规避对外贸易风险假说的存在性.研究结果显示：除越南以外，其他五国的政府支出与对外开放程度之间均存在着显著的长期影响关系，但政府支出规避对外贸易风险假说仅在中国、印尼和南非三个国家成立.继Islam (2004) 发现该假说在OECD国家不成立之后，本文的研究结论又表明政府支出规避对外贸易风险假说在“灵猫六国”等新兴经济体中同样也不具有普遍性.

中文关键词:政府支出对外开放风险规避边界检验自回归分布滞后模型

Can Government Expenditure Evade Trade Risk?〖CD2〗Evidence from “CIVETS”

Abstract:Sampling by CIVETS, this article studied the long-term relationship between government expenditure and openness using bounds test method and ARDL method from time series perspective. It also verifies the existence of the hypothesis put forward by Rodrik in 1998 that government expenditure can evade trade risk. The results show that, significant long-term relationship between government expenditure and openness does exist in China, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa except Vietnam. But the hypothesis only exists in China, Indonesia and South Africa, thus the hypothesis is not correct in all CIVETS countries, which is similar to Islam’s results in 2004 that the hypothesis does not exist in all OECD countries.

keywords:government expenditure openness risk evading bounds test ARDL model

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