灰色-马尔柯夫链预测优化模型——以江苏省物流需求预测为例

何有世1; 李明辉2

灰色-马尔柯夫链预测优化模型——以江苏省物流需求预测为例

引用本文：何有世1,李明辉2.灰色-马尔柯夫链预测优化模型——以江苏省物流需求预测为例[J].经济数学,2011,(3):97-101

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作者	单位
何有世1,李明辉2	(1 江苏大学工商管理学院，江苏镇江 212013；2 江苏大学财经学院，江苏镇江 212013)

中文摘要:讨论了现有灰色-马尔柯夫链预测方法的基本思路，针对该思路的不足之处提出了合理刻画预测模型精度特征的两个精度指标——均值指标和稳定性指标，并据此建立了灰色-马尔柯夫链预测优化模型，最终以江苏省物流需求为例，对该模型进行了实例验证和应用.

中文关键词:灰色-马尔柯夫链预测优化模型江苏省物流需求

The Grey - Markov Forecasting Optimization Model：the Case of Logistics Demand Prediction of Jiangsu Province

Abstract:This paper discussed the basic ideas of current gray -markov model. The disadvantages of the basic ideas were first analyzed, and then we proposed two precision indexes—mean index and stability index, which can characterize the reasonable accuracy of prediction model features. Based on the two precision indexes, a gray -Markov forecasting optimization model was established. Finally, this prediction model was tested and verified by the example of logistics demand of Jiangsu province.

keywords:grey -Markov forecasting optimization model Jiangsu province logistics demand

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