金融危机前后中国房价指数对CPI的影响

黄飞雪; 金建东

金融危机前后中国房价指数对CPI的影响

引用本文：黄飞雪,金建东.金融危机前后中国房价指数对CPI的影响[J].经济数学,2010,27(3):64-72

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作者	单位
黄飞雪	(大连理工大学管理与经济学部经济学院，辽宁大连116024 )
金建东

中文摘要:针对房地产价格指数（REPI）变化对CPI影响关系的问题，提出运用STR模型进行实证.通过选取2005年7月到2009年11月的月度数据，结果发现：房地产价格指数以及CPI变化之间关系适用于复杂的非线性模型，即房地产价格指数的变化与CPI的变化之间的关系适用于LSTR2模型，转换变量的门限值为C1=0.001 6、C2=0.003 8；房地产价格指数的变化对CPI有明显的推动作用，仅考虑非线性部分，当其转换变量超过门限值时，房地产价格指数每增加1单位，CPI将增加0.35个单位.因此，相关的部门制定政策时，应考虑到该关系中的非线性部分；加强房地产市场宏观调控与房地产市场的监管力度，保持房价稳定进而抑制CPI过快上涨.

中文关键词:房地产价格指数（REPI）平滑转换自回归（STR）模型转换函数 CPI

Chinese REPI Impact on the CPI before and after Financial Crisis

Abstract:This paper examined the relationship between the real estate price index(REPI) and consumption price index(CPI), which was evaluated by the nonlinear model STR. The data was selected from Jun 2005 to Nov 2009. The following results were obtained: Obvious nonlinear relationship exists between the real estate price index and consumption price index. Specifically, LSTR2 model was found to express the relationship between the real estate price index and consumptionprice index. The thresholds of transformed variation are 0.0016 and 0.0038; REPI had a positive impact on CPI increase. When the value of transformed variation is beyond the threshold, the CPI will grow 0.35 unit with REPI increasing 1 unit. Therefore, when formulating policies, the relevant departments must consider the relationship of nonlinear part We should strengthen macro regulation and real estate market regulation, keeping the price of the real estate stable.

keywords:real estate price index(REPI) smooth transition regression(STR) model transformed function consumption price index(CPI)

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