客户回报随机过程的Markov性和时间齐次性
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引用本文:莫晓云.客户回报随机过程的Markov性和时间齐次性[J].经济数学,2010,27(3):28-34
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作者单位
莫晓云 (湖南财政经济学院,湖南 长沙410205) 
中文摘要:在客户发展关系的Markov链模型的基础上,构建了企业的客户回报随机过程.证明了:在适当假设下,客户回报过程是Markov链,甚至是时间齐次的Markov链.本文求出了该链的转移概率.通过转移概率得到了客户给企业期望回报的一些计算公式,从而为企业选定发展客户关系策略提供了有效的量化基础.
中文关键词:客户回报随机过程  Markov性  时间齐次性  转移概率  期望回报
 
Markov Property and Time homogeneity for the Customer repaying Stochastic Process
Abstract:Based on the model of Markov chain for developing relation of customers, the customer repaying stochastic process for enterprise was formulated. It is proved that, under some appropriate hypothesis, the customer repaying process is a Markov chain,even a time homogeneous Markov chain. And the transition probabilities for this Markov chain was calculated. Using the transition probabilities of this Markov chain, some formulas of calculating the customer repayment for enterprise were obtained, which offers an effective amounting foundation of policies that the enterprise chooses developing relation of customers.
keywords:customer repaying stochastic process  Markov property  time homogeneity  transition probability  expectation repayment
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